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Each time the wind gusts from the east from Belarus, Lithuania expects issues.

That is when enormous inflatables are launched across the border, with containers of contraband goods swinging beneath.

Over the past 10 weeks, this smuggling operation has forced Lithuania's main airport into shutdown 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the airspace was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the officials are convinced they are confronting something much more aggressive than mere smugglers.

They state the balloons have been "weaponised" in an act of unconventional conflict by Belarus, Russia's closest ally.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian government has declared an emergency situation.

While balloons have been utilized by smugglers before, their numbers increased dramatically this October.

"Naturally it began as organised crime activity, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus instrumentalises criminal networks to have an effect on bordering nations," a government minister stated.

The official argued the balloons are launched from locations that help them best "target" Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to make a contraband run, you'd do it in the woods or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister reasoned.

Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of diplomatic leverage on Europe's eastern flank.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the military and security field."

Nocturnal Operations

Now, nightly, military police head out in the frontier area.

The balloons are most common during the night.

Teams set up temporary roadblocks on remote country roads, checking drivers' documents and searching vehicles looking for anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high up to make intercepting them with firearms a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has announced a substantial reward to any company that can develop how to intercept them.

In the meantime, teams use military radar to monitor the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new legal penalties for acts of sabotage should also serve as a preventive measure.

Political Objectives

The frontier line is now marked by a high security barrier, with security wire and fortifications.

This enhanced fortification is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as hostile.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".

He recently blamed "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to previous incidents.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, provoking a manufactured emergency.

"The current pattern involves a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That means it benefits them."

The suspicion is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into lifting sanctions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and force us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus aided Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Consequences for Travel

For now, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"We believe this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words hint that another aim of such hybrid activity – undermining confidence – is also having an effect, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"They're basically testing the limits of Nato: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the fundamental challenges."