Behind the Ceremony of Vladimir Putin's Delhi Visit: The Indo-Russian Relationship That Has Weakened.
The rhetoric and imagery from the Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to India projected a robust two-way relationship. Indian PM Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the airport with a hug, and the leaders shared a car journey, echoing a familiar political gesture. In his comments, Modi called Putin as "my friend" and described the Indo-Russian connection as a "guiding star", founded on "mutual respect and deep trust" that had "stood the test of time". This was Putin's tenth trip to India over his 25-year rule and his twentieth encounter with Modi after the latter assumed the premiership in 2014.
A Divide Separating Pageantry and Reality
Yet, a clear divide exists between the ceremony and the substance of this partnership. Although Putin pledged "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's refiners are actually purchasing a reduced amount of Russian oil due to external tariffs and sanctions. The two countries concluded a series of memorandums of understanding in areas like mobility, health, food security, naval cooperation, and academic collaboration. But, expected revelations on significant military deals did not come to pass. India has not concluded any substantial defence purchases with Russia since the 2022 offensive of Ukraine, a situation driven by delays in deliveries of platforms and spare parts as Moscow focuses on its own defence requirements.
A Relationship With Diminished Strategic Heft
This all points to that the India-Russia relationship no longer holds the same geopolitical clout it once did. During the Cold War, India enjoyed special barter arrangements and economic entry to the USSR and its allies. This unique relationship reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded before a conflict with Pakistan during which Islamabad was backed by the US and China. While both nations have sought to preserve a appearance of this close tie through a "unique and elevated" strategic partnership announced in 2010, the reality is that their interaction lacks the same significance as New Delhi has substantially deepened ties with the West.
Broadening and Inherent Contradictions
New Delhi is not expected to cut its important links with Moscow. Yet, as external coercion increases on India to curtail its imports of Russian oil, both nations are seeking to broaden the partnership into other areas. During Putin's trip, they announced an economic cooperation program extending until 2030, designed to make their relations "broader, equitable and sustainable". This includes enhancing entry for Indian products to rectify a trade deficit strongly tilted in Russia's favour. Collaboration between the two spans several key strategic sectors – from aerospace and nuclear energy to defence and food security.
Sentimental Affinity and Seen Dependability
At an sentimental plane, a significant amount of closeness with Russia persists, especially among older cohorts of policymakers in New Delhi who recall Moscow's crucial role during the earlier era. This has resulted in a degree of sympathy for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. During recent tensions between India and the US, where American officials have made sharp comments about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a increasingly dependable ally.
The challenge, of course, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The extensive declaration issued during Putin's visit contained no reference to Ukraine, even though it ironically referred to the partnership as an "anchor of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's much-touted assertion that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's public actions regarding the conflict have been limited.
Navigating the Circle: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Tightrope
This situation highlights the inherent contradictions in India's foreign policy. The nation is set to conclude a free trade agreement with the European Union, following a comparable agreement with the UK this year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada declared a three-way technology partnership. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although moves are being made to boost people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.
How will India resolve this complex equation? New Delhi will be hoping that ongoing peace negotiations will bear fruit, leading to a cessation of hostilities and the removal of a key thorn in its ties with the West. But, even if a settlement is achieved, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that upholds Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, scrutiny of the Indo-Russian alliance will undoubtedly continue in Western capitals.