The Israeli premier is due to sit down with Donald Trump at the presidential resort in Florida on Monday evening. This occurs as worries mount that Israel could initiate new operations against neighboring adversaries, potentially dragging the Middle East further into instability.
The prime minister flew from Israel on Sunday, representing his fifth visit to see Trump in the United States in the current year.
Ceasefire in Gaza and Pending Challenges
High on the agenda will be the halt in hostilities in Gaza, which in October brought an end to the destructive two-year war. While the conditions for an opening period have been largely completed, with Israeli forces retreating to new positions and Hamas freeing the surviving and nearly all of the deceased hostages, enormous challenges lie ahead for the implementation of the next stage of the president's 20-point plan.
There are further fears that Israel will launch new military campaigns against Hezbollah in Lebanon, violating a ceasefire put in place more than a year ago, or against Iran, which it accuses of speeding up the production of ballistic missiles in the past few months.
“The first phase is practically over, there’s one remaining Israeli deceased hostage which [Hamas] are having difficulty finding,” commented an analyst involved in back-channel talks.
Each party trade accusations of breaking the truce. Hamas has not managed to clearly commit to laying down its weapons and has had considerable success in imposing its authority in the parts of Gaza where nearly the entire population is concentrated. Israel seems reluctant to pull out from the 53% of Gaza it now controls or to permit the unhindered flow of aid into the region.
“Phase 2 has to begin … and I think the Americans realise that it’s late because Hamas has had too much time to re-establish its presence and this is absolutely not a situation that the Americans want to perpetuate,” the expert added.
Humanitarian Cost and Current Situation
More than 70,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, were killed in Gaza during the war and the vast majority of the territory’s 2.3 million population was displaced. Approximately 400 Palestinians have died in Gaza since the October ceasefire, and a great many continue to live in conditions of acute hardship.
In recent weeks, torrential rains and chilly weather have exacerbated the plight in Gaza, where the majority of housing and infrastructure have been badly damaged or razed.
The war was precipitated by a unexpected offensive by Hamas in southern Israel in 2023, in which 1,200 people, predominantly civilians, were killed and 250 others captured.
Next Stages and Political Tensions
Under the subsequent phases of the roadmap, an provisional government made up of nonaligned Palestinian technocrats is to administer the Palestinian territory instead of Hamas. An multinational peacekeeping force of thousands of troops is to be sent in.
US officials have hinted the membership of the new authority could be revealed in January.
Reports indicate that senior US officials are becoming impatient “as Netanyahu has taken steps to undermine the fragile ceasefire and impede the peace process”.
“There are more and more signs that the American administration is getting impatient with Netanyahu,” said a regional analyst. “The question is what it’s going to do about it, because the second phase is right now going nowhere.”
Netanyahu's Main Goals
For Netanyahu, a key objective will be convincing Trump to allow Israel to act to prevent Iran from repairing the damage inflicted on its nuclear programme or building its ballistic missile capabilities.
Meanwhile, efforts to secure a stability deal between Israel and Syria have failed to make significant progress and will also be on the agenda at Mar-a-Lago. Israeli officials have also called for more effective efforts to disarm Hezbollah.
Netanyahu faces an election within 10 months, and the upcoming polls will affect his agenda. “Everything is connected to [his] remaining in office,” an analyst said.
Surveys show Netanyahu’s current coalition would have a hard time to form a government if elections were held now. Many voters are displeased over the shortcomings that led to the 2023 Hamas raid, policies concerning military service exemptions, and a series of scandals.
A tight alliance with Trump would bolster Netanyahu’s appeal among swing voters and his base. This suggests any visible discord between the two leaders is very doubtful, analysts said.
Netanyahu is expected to seek to persuade Trump of the need for Israel to maintain a defence advantage over potential regional enemies. Many Israeli officials were concerned by past US comments regarding advanced weapons sales to other regional states.
