Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure
A number of members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.